So we have:

- P(Miss Thong doesn't draw the 發) = 15/16
- P(Trusty doesn't draw the 發) = 14/15 (coz less one tile by the time it comes to Trusty's turn)
- P(Newbie doesn't draw the 發) = 13/14 (coz less one tile by the time it comes to Newbie's turn)
- P(Newbie draws the 發 AND she throws it out) = (1/14)(1/2)
- P(Miss Loi draws the 發) = 1/13 (i.e. 自摸! - can only reach this stage if Newbie doesn't throw the 發 out for Miss Loi to win)

To obtain the probability of Miss Loi winning, you'll need to add up all the possible cases that she will win i.e.

**自摸 Case!**i.e. P(Miss Thong doesn't draw the 發) x P(Trusty doesn't draw the 發) x P(Newbie doesn't draw the 發) x P(Miss Loi draws the 發)**Thank You Newbie Case!**i.e. P(Miss Thong doesn't draw the 發) x P(Trusty doesn't draw the 發) x P(Newbie draws the 發 AND foolishly throws it out for Miss Loi to win!)

∴ P(Miss Loi wins!) =

(15/16)(14/15)(13/14)(1/13) + (15/16)(14/15)(1/14 x 1/2)

= 1/16 + 1/32 = 3/32

So **Anoneemers** would you like to join us at the mahjong table? 😉

P(a person is good in both mahjong and maths)=1/100

Is the answer 15/16 X 14/15 X 13/14 X 1/13 = 1/16 (assuming all other players didnt discard their tiles)

or 15/16 X 15/16 X 15/16 X 1/16 = 3375 /65536 ? (assuming all discard if not the 發财 tile)

P.S.If this question ever comes out in exam i will probably write P(win)=1/2 (win or lose XD).

]]>Miss Loi's already feeling utterly ashamed that her wily 老千 maneuver was caught by a *mahjong* newbie!

But then again, the question essentially remains unchanged, and don't you agree that a 發财 sounds more prosperous than a 紅中? 😛

]]>From a 中 tile you changed it to a 發 tile!

CHEAT!!! :p

]]>**game:** 恭喜恭喜！您现在在大陆哪里过年啊？

**ByPasser:** Oh thanks! Wishing you many many Thirteen Wonders!

Besides, the only thrill of playing Mahjong is to win money, and since I'm a non-gambler, no incentives to learn it.

]]>P.S. Errr ... probabilities are probably one of the most practical and down-to-earth topics in maths. Take this case ... you see ... if you're a true-blue *mahjong tai-tai* there are really only *two* ways in which Miss Loi can win when it reaches her turn 😉